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| DAY 5: Incredible tornadoes near Rozel, Kansas
HD CHASE VIDEO: Tornadoes near Roze, Kansas, May 18
An amazing, amazing day! Two perfect tornadoes near Rozel, Kansas, then lightning and double rainbow at Larned, Kansas. It doesn't get much better than this!
Looking straight up at the start of tornado #2. The first debris whirl began in the field next to the road:
This was wild - rope tornado still on the ground - but the updraft/meso is gone! I've never seen a tornado still in progress with literally no storm above it or even near it.
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Hey Dan. I'm Tom's aunt. I live south of Hays, Ks. We were worried about those storms today. Looks like you were in the right place at the right time. Great photos. Glad they missed us. Be safe out there!
- Posted by Paula from Hays ks | | |
Nice work - great pictures Da. That was some shot with the tornado and lightning.
- Posted by George Duffield | | |
Wow, great job Dan. Large tornado with orange sky and lightning background is epic. I hope the tornadoes did not damage any homes or properties. Thank you for the quick update. Be safe!
- Posted by Luka from Arizona | | |
Thank you all for the comments! What a day!
- Posted by Dan R. from Emporia, KS | | |
Check today's Charleston Daily Mail FB page for another double rainbow. Amazing tornado shots, by the way!
- Posted by David Rowh from Salisbury NC | | |
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| DAY 4: Travel day to Kansas/Nebraska
The second Great Plains chase expedition of 2013 is officially under way! With today's storms safely east of St. Louis, I left home at 2:30PM and am currently westbound toward an arrival somewhere in southwestern Nebraska or northwestern Kansas by midday tomorrow. I'll be making an overnight stopover at some yet-to-be determined point between here and there.
This blog, as with past years, will usually only be updated at the end of each chase day. Stay tuned to the Twitter feed and/or the Facebook page as I'll be posting updates and a few images from the field as time and internet access allow.
The following table charts the probability of a Great Plains chase expedition for the indicated date ranges:
| 2013 Plains Chase Expeditions - Probabilities as of May 17 |
| May 17-20 | 100% | |
| May 21-27 | 40% | |
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Yeah were off, Good luck Dan !!!!
- Posted by Mick from UK | | |
Hope it happens right on time. Good luck!
- Posted by Luka from Arizona | | |
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| May 15 distant Illinois lightning
I opted to shoot last night's storms from home, as I didn't think they would last long enough for me to get closer. This lightning is about 70 miles to my north, shot with the 50mm lens at 800 ISO. These aren't much, but they bring the lightning-photos-every-month streak to 17.
An early-morning complex of weak storms is rolling through the area now, which will likely eliminate our chances of seeing anything else chaseworthy today. Another local lightning chase is possible here tomorrow, then it's off to the Plains for Saturday.
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| Plains trip #2 a go, for now
The models' maintenance and general agreement of worthy chase opportunities continues, now with at least three setups for potential tornadoes beginning on Saturday in Kansas/Oklahoma/Nebraska. The system should move east and bring each successive day's target area closer to home, with Monday and Tuesday possibly being local Midwest chase days. The forecast incoming upper wave is more amplified than before, becoming negatively tilted for Sunday and Monday. The flow in the trough looks a little on the weak side for Saturday, but I think there will still be enough to warrant beginning the trip that day with morning departure from St. Louis. Sunday and Monday look like the bigger days, with targets potentially right back here in the Midwest. This could technically end up being a one-day Plains, two-to-three-day Midwest trip.
Negative-tilt trough at 500mb for Sunday
Lord willing and barring an unlikely last-minute model mega-bust, Plains trip #2 looks like a go starting early Saturday. Looking farther ahead (beyond Tuesday), an 'Omega' blocking pattern is shown setting up with troughs in the east and west and a ridge over the central US. Decent upper flow overtop of good instability is shown bringing a few possible chase days in the extreme north (Montana and the Dakotas), but it looks like the rest of the Plains will shut down again for at least another week. The way it appears now, the next trip-worthy chase opportunities may not arrive until at least the end of the month.
The following table charts the probability of a Great Plains chase expedition for the indicated date ranges:
| 2013 Plains Chase Expeditions - Probabilities as of May 15 |
| May 15-17 | 1% | |
| May 18-20 | 95% | |
| May 21-25 | 10% | |
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Looking good Dan for the 18th - 20th will again keep a close eye on your Blog !!! Hope it happens mate !
Mick
- Posted by Mick from UK | | |
Thanks Mick!
- Posted by Dan R. from New Baden, IL | | |
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| Possible Plains opportunities late next week
It appears we may have some legit Great Plains chase days in the making for late next week, though it is too early to start looking at specific targets. A shortwave (smaller in amplitude) trough is shown by the GFS and Euro models as traversing the USA's midsection from Friday through Sunday. This will overspread southwesterly flow of at least 30 knots overtop of a dryline with good low-level moisture, yielding CAPE values in the 3000 j/kg range. Wind profiles veer with height, starting with southeasterly surface winds near and along the dryline in Kansas and Nebraska (the most likely target areas if current model runs verify). Capping could be a concern with 700mb temps approaching 12°C, though precip has been indicated breaking out in the best areas.
Translating those setups to potential SPC outlook levels, Friday and Saturday appear to be high-end slight risks with 5%-10% tornado probabilities. A moderate risk would not surprise me if moisture and instability values can be realized.
Because this system could bring at minimum two consecutive chase days, it's on my radar as far as triggering Plains expedition #2 for the year. However, since shortwave troughs are often handled poorly by models, especially more than a few days out, I will hesitate in giving this system more than 50% chase probabilities. That value will increase in the coming days if models hold on to what is currently shown. Since I can make a same-day western Kansas arrival easily with a morning departure from St. Louis, a go/no go decision could come as late as sunrise Friday morning.
The following table charts the probability of a Great Plains chase expedition for the indicated date ranges:
| 2013 Plains Chase Expeditions - Probabilities as of May 11 |
| May 12-15 | 1% | |
| May 16-20 | 50% | |
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Good grief.. it's mid-May already. Way overdue for a good set-up.
- Posted by JM from Canada | | |
Yep - definitely been a slow start. Hopefully things will really begin taking off later this month into June.
- Posted by Dan R. from New Baden, IL | | |
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| May 9 Missouri/Illinois storms
I had moderate expectations for today's setup, with stronger-than-forecast midlevel flow and skies clearing out by midday. I started the day by observing storms going up at Dardenne Prairie, MO near the center of a strong, very well-defined MCV (meso-convective vortex, a small low pressure generated by a large storm complex the day before). These were unimpressive despite being in the vorticity-rich environment, thanks to weak instability.
This storm went on to produce a tornado just east of I-55 about an hour later.
I abandoned this area for a new storm going up in a region of much better instability southeast of St. Louis. I met the storm's forward flank precip at my hometown, New Baden, and got ahead of it at Okawville. The storm was strongly outflow dominant, but remained discrete and organized. This was the view to the northwest at the I-64/Highway 177 interchange at Okawville:
The VIL data (Vertically Integrated Liquid, a radar product used to estimate hail size) for the storm spiked impressively at this point, indicating there could be sizeable hail in the core. I turned north at New Minden to see if I could find any, with this view just before I let the storm catch me and pass over:
I saw only a brief shower of pea-sized hail in the heaviest part of the precip. I can't remember a storm that had such a strong VIL return having so little hail. It's possible that the larger hail fell to the east, or maybe this storm was just an VIL anomaly. I tried following the storm east, but slow traffic on Highway 161 prevented me from catching up again. I returned home at 6PM.
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